Latest
14
Jan
Intel: A Turnaround That Never Arrives
Intel has been “turning around” for half a decade. The promise keeps moving forward. The costs are real. The results aren’t.
8 min read
12
Jan
Bitcoin Part 2: The One Number That's Called Every Top and Bottom
Every Bitcoin transaction ever made is public. That means we can calculate what everyone actually paid—in real time. One metric has called every major top and bottom for 13 years. Here's how to read it.
3 min read
09
Jan
The Pros and Cons of ETF Investing for Beginners
ETFs are the "easy button" of investing—low cost, instant diversification, buy and forget. But easy isn't the same as optimal. Here's what 35 years taught me about when ETFs work and when you're better off owning the stocks yourself.
3 min read
07
Jan
Is Apple Worth 37x Earnings? My Unpopular Answer
I own Apple. It's about 35% of my portfolio. And I just wrote a piece explaining why it looks expensive. That's not a contradiction. That's the whole point. The question isn't 'is Apple expensive today?' The question is 'does Apple still belong in my portfolio?' Different question. Different answer.
4 min read
05
Jan
How to Actually Value Bitcoin (When Everyone Else Is Guessing)
I spent 35 years valuing stocks with fundamentals. No cash flow, no dividends, no CEO—Bitcoin breaks all the rules. So I did the homework anyway. Part 1 of 4.
4 min read
02
Jan
Hope Is Not an Exit Strategy
My son asked me the question most investors can't answer: "What's your system for getting out?" I had entry criteria I could recite in my sleep. But when do I sell? I realized I'd never written it down.
4 min read
31
Dec
VERIZON (VZ): Junior telecom debt with a utility ceiling
The problem isn’t whether Verizon stabilizes — it’s what you’re left owning if it does.
14 min read
29
Dec
Home Depot (HD): The Housing Cycle Play Everyone Owns But Nobody’s Timing Right
Great business, fair price, terrible entry.
5 min read
26
Dec
Boxing Day for Your Portfolio
Boxing Day isn’t just for returning bad gifts—use it to return bad positions. Go line by line through your portfolio and ask: “If this were cash today, would I buy it right now?” If the answer’s no, it’s clutter, not an investment.
1 min read
24
Dec
Intel (INTC): The Turnaround That’s Been “Turning Around” for Five Years
The $100B foundry bet Wall Street is already calling a success.
7 min read